:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0000Z from Region 3796 (S03E55). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 19/0724Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1854Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (22 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 239
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 240/245/240
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 203

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  006/005-006/005-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/35