:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/2152Z from Region 3796 (S03E55). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 19/2239Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/2159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/2117Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (22 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 244
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 245/240/240
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 204

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  006/005-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/15
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/40/25