:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0602Z from Region 3796 (S03E26). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 21/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1532Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (24 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 239
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 240/240/245
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 204

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15