:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
21/2208Z from Region 3796 (S03E26). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 22/0921Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 22/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1422Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 231
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 230/235/240
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 205

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15