:Product: 0823RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 23/2012Z from Region 3800 (S28E17). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 23/0110Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/0355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug). III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Aug 242 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 245/250/260 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 206 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 006/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15