:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0014Z from Region 3796 (S04W14). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 24/0255Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/0500Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 174 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 232
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 240/245/245
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 207

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  006/005-005/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/45