:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/2324Z from Region 3800 (S28E05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 24/2136Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/0915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0322Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 233
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 235/230/230
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 208

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  005/005-008/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/45/40