:Product: 0826RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/1141Z from Region 3796 (S04W40). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 26/0221Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/0715Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 191 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (29 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug). III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug Class M 70/70/60 Class X 20/20/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Aug 232 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 230/235/242 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 208 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 008/012-011/012-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/10 Minor Storm 15/15/01 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/45/15