:Product: 0827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/0943Z from Region 3796 (S04W52). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 27/1542Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
27/2022Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet levels on day
two (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    70/60/60
Class X    20/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 221
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 225/230/235
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 209

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  013/014-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/20
Minor Storm           15/01/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    45/15/25