:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/2038Z from Region 3801 (N07W17). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 28/0736Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 28/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 28/0541Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (31
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    55/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 212
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 220/215/215
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 209

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  022/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  013/015-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/15