:Product: 0831RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Aug 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1302Z from Region 3806 (S11E34). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 31/1719Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 31/1902Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 31/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep). III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Aug 232 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 235/245/245 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 211 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 007/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15