:Product: 0901RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Sep 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 01/1322Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 01/0904Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep). III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Sep 226 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 230/240/245 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 211 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 019/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 007/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/15