:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0255Z from Region 3813 (S23E35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 04/1644Z. Total IMF reached 26
nT at 04/1105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
04/1558Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 04/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1308 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 262
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 260/250/240
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 213

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  009/010-008/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/15