:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0856Z from Region 3807 (S15W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 426 km/s at 05/0546Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
04/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0825Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 05/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 257 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Sep, 08
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 241
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 235/225/225
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 213

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  016/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/40