:Product: 0906RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Sep 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 06/1919Z from Region 3806 (S11W53). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 06/0001Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 06/0733Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep). III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep Class M 65/65/65 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Sep 249 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 245/245/250 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 214 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 006/005-008/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/40/40