:Product: 0907RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Sep 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/0749Z from Region 3815 (S28E15). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 07/0751Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/0246Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep). III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Sep 222 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 215 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/010-007/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/25