:Product: 0908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/1530Z from Region 3813 (S22W11). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 08/1143Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/2015Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 228
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 225/225/220
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  007/010-018/030-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor Storm           10/35/25
Major-severe storm    01/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/15/20
Major-severe storm    40/75/65