:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/1708Z from Region 3814 (N16E10). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/1700Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 09/1312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
09/0000Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25 pfu at 09/2040Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (12 Sep).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10 Sep), have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Sep) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     75/50/20
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 215
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 215/215/210
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  019/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  018/030-018/022-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/20
Minor Storm           35/25/05
Major-severe storm    25/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/65/25