:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1547Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 10/0254Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/2156Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 34 pfu at 09/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Sep, 12
Sep) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (13 Sep). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (11 Sep, 12 Sep) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     50/50/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 205
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 205/200/200
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  018/020-012/020-023/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/35
Major-severe storm    05/05/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/65/75