:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at
14/1529Z from Region 3825 (S18E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 13/2102Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 13/2119Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 14/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to major storm levels
on day three (17 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 172
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 217

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  022/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  013/018-045/070-019/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/30
Minor Storm           10/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/50/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/01/05
Minor Storm           30/10/15
Major-severe storm    45/90/80