:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1527Z from Region 3825 (S16W21). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 19/0836Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 19/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 19/1056Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1227 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (20 Sep, 22 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 161
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/30/25