:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/1457Z from Region 3831 (N12W09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 485 km/s at 20/0519Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
19/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/2055Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1240 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 154
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  009/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    30/25/15