:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/2046Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep,
24 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 21/0218Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/0426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1817Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1587 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 158
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  007/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/15