:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/2139Z from Region 3835 (S22E63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 23/2033Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/1201Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1386 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Sep, 26 Sep)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 167
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 214

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  011/014-013/018-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/60/40