:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
24/1146Z from Region 3828 (S11W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 24/0241Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/1814Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 172
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 172/170/168
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 214

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/018-012/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/10
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    60/40/15