:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
25/1555Z from Region 3836 (S10E45). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 25/0815Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/0400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 25/0846Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (28
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 174
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 172/168/166
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 214

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  024/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  019/025-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    70/25/15