:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/2312Z from Region 3828 (S11W48). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 25/2147Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2104Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1113 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 181
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 214

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  024/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  005/005-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/40