:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2312Z from Region 3839 (S14E73). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 27/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/0931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/0838Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 186
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 185/185/185
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 214

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  006/005-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/40/25