:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1424Z from Region 3842 (S15E45). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 29/2044Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 29/1451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
29/1951Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 574 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet levels on
days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 197
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 200/200/200
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 214

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  009/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    45/15/15