:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/2145Z from Region 3842 (S15E45). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 30/0301Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 29/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
29/2348Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 214
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 200/200/195
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 215

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  017/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15