:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
30/2359Z from Region 3842 (S15E31). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 01/0219Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 30/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0221Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 222 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 245
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 215/215/210
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 216

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15