:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X7 event observed at
01/2220Z from Region 3842 (S15E18). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 01/2141Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0444Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 257 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), active to
severe storm levels on day two (04 Oct) and active to major storm levels
on day three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     35/35/35
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 275
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 250/250/235
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 217

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  010/015-044/074-032/052

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/30
Minor Storm           30/30/40
Major-severe storm    10/35/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    65/75/70