:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X9 event observed at
03/1218Z from Region 3842 (S15W08). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05
Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 03/1914Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/1124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (04 Oct), minor
storm to severe storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and active to severe
storm levels on day three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     35/35/35
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 312
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 310/310/310
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 219

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  011/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  033/054-048/094-044/072

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           35/30/35
Major-severe storm    35/40/35
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    75/80/75