:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
04/0455Z from Region 3842 (S15W21). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06
Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 04/0214Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
04/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
04/2016Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06
Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Oct). Protons
have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     35/35/35
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 291
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 290/280/280
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  039/065-041/068-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/01/05
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    85/85/70