:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0844Z from Region 3842 (S14W35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 04/2336Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/2138Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (06 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day
three (08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/25
Proton     30/30/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 277
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 280/280/270
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 221

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  011/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  036/058-021/028-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/30
Minor Storm           35/30/10
Major-severe storm    50/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/15
Minor Storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    85/70/40