:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/2320Z from Region 3842 (S14W35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08
Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 06/1758Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 06/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
06/1515Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 640 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (09
Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (07 Oct)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (08 Oct,
09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/25/25
Proton     30/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 265
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 265/260/255
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  015/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  020/028-010/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/10
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    70/40/15