:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
07/1913Z from Region 3842 (S15W63). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 07/0344Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 07/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 07/1728Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 219 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (10
Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Oct)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (09 Oct,
10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    30/30/25
Proton     30/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 277
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 260/255/250
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  030/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  022/030-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    55/30/15