:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0851Z from Region 3842 (S13W76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 07/2303Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 08/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 08/0233Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 08/0445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (10 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Oct).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (09 Oct) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    30/30/25
Proton     30/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 225
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 260/260/250
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  033/053
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  033/057
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  008/010-006/005-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/35
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/15/50