:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
09/0156Z from Region 3848 (N12W25). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/0820Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 08/2223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 08/2238Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1072 pfu at 09/2100Z. Protons greater than 100
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 09/0805Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 363 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (10 Oct), minor storm
to severe storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and active to minor storm
levels on day three (12 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
day one (10 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11
Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    40/40/35
Proton     75/50/30
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 220
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 245/240/235
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 224

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  029/053
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  070/125-086/122-030/042

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    80/80/60