:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
09/2312Z from Region 3842 (S13W90). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 833 km/s at 10/1616Z. Total IMF
reached 39 nT at 10/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-29 nT at 10/1607Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1811 pfu at 10/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (11 Oct), active
to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (13 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and are expected to cross threshold on day
three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     99/99/80
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 216
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 215/215/215
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 224

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  044/081
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  074/122-030/042-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/40/25
Minor Storm           30/35/05
Major-severe storm    65/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/15
Minor Storm           05/20/30
Major-severe storm    95/75/30