:Product: 1012RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Oct 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 11/2320Z from Region 3842 (S13, L=181). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 12/0830Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/2217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 432 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct). III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct Class M 55/55/55 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Oct 214 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 223 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 068/112 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 011/012-009/010-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 35/35/40