:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
14/0017Z from Region 3848 (N15W90). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Oct,
16 Oct) and likely to be moderate on day three (17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 14/0000Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
14/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/2016Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 637 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     15/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 182
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  011/012-017/025-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor Storm           10/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/65/25