:Product: 1015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/1833Z from Region 3854 (S05W33). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and likely
to be moderate on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 15/0310Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/1654Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 465 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (18
Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     15/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 172
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 221

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  017/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  017/025-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/25/15