:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/0346Z from Region 3852 (S11W51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Oct,
18 Oct) and likely to be moderate on day three (19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 16/1623Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 16/0346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/2156Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 710 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    80/75/65
Class X    20/15/05
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 168
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 165/160/175
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 221

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/008-012/015-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/45