:Product: 1017RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Oct 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 17/0505Z from Region 3852 (S15W65). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 17/0003Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/0144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct). III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct Class M 60/60/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Oct 174 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 170/160/165 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 221 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 012/015-014/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/40/30