:Product: 1018RSGA.txt :Issued: 2024 Oct 19 1825 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2024 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 18/1938Z from Region 3854 (S10W71). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 18/1721Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1,180 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct). III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct Class M 60/60/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Oct 165 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 165/160/165 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 220 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 012/015-012/015-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/40/30