:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
19/0656Z from Region 3854 (S06W85). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Oct) and likely
to be moderate on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 19/2017Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 19/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 19/0335Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (21 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (22 Oct).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    60/55/55
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 162
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  011/012-006/005-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/15/40