:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0024Z from Region 3859 (S12W41). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct,
23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
19/2244Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Oct), unsettled to active levels on
day two (22 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 162
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  006/005-013/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/40/30