:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
21/1001Z. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct,
24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 492 km/s at 21/0235Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
21/1059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/0655Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 316 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 164
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 219

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  013/015-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/30