:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2024 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/0026Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 23/1934Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
23/1104Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 185
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 185/190/190
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 220

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  008/010-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/35/30